One-Year Monte-Carlo Simulation

Observations

1. Validator bottleneck (Day ≈ 90): miner surge, validator lag → Q −12 %, R flat.

2. Validator outage (Day ≈ 180): ten-day validator dip → R −18 %, miners steady.

3. Self-healing: validator growth catches up → Q back > 90, R resumes up-trend.

Design Implications

• Rewards scale with validation capacity as much as mining power.

• Short-term R volatility of ±20 % is expected.

• DAO can tune validator incentives, admission stake, or α/β constants if live metrics drift outside envelopes.